Jack Campbell Thinks Highly of Himself
by WCHBlog on Nov 24, 2009 1:32 AM PST
9 comments
On Saturday, my boss(or ex-boss as it is, now that he's auditioning as a big-shot beatwriter) James Mirtle emailed me to ask if I knew anything about former NHLPA boss Paul Kelly's new venture designed to promote college hockey that will be announced today. While I didn't know any specifics, I did say there were a number of reasons why I thought something like that would be a good idea for college hockey. Among my reasons was this: "There's a lot of myths about how great things are up north that never seem to go away because there's really only one side doing all the talking".
The news on Monday that Jack Campbell was backing out of his commitment to Michigan to play for the Windsor Spitfires serves as an emphatic puncutation to my point--except that Windsor is techinically south of Detroit, I guess.
Campbell released a statement to Michigan's Rivals.com site, explaining his decision. His reasoning: "My goal is to be playing in the National Hockey League within a year or two, and I did not want to put Michigan's hockey program in a bad position where I left after one season. By going to the Ontario Hockey League, I feel it will accelerate my development so I will be able to more quickly achieve my goal of being an NHL goaltender."
By all accounts, Campbell should be a first round draft pick. So just how quickly does the OHL, and CHL in general get their goalies drafted in the first round into the National Hockey League? Is it at all realistic that Campbell could be playing in the NHL a year after he was drafted? I'll break down the CHL goalies taken in the first round of the draft-by-year to find out.
The data gets kind of long, so I'll put it after the jump, but in case you don't care to read through, I'll post the spoilers now. Over 10 drafts--1999-2008--there has been a grand total of one goalie from the CHL(Dan Blackburn, if you're curious) drafted in the first round that wasn't still eligible for the Calder Trophy(no more than 25 NHL games played, or 6 in two seperate seasons) at the end of the timeframe with which Campbell suggests he'll be in the NHL.
I guess you have to give props to Windsor for being able to sell this kid on what is essentially a lie. Maybe Campbell will be good enough to do what all of those other goalies who were once in his position--or in some cases, a much better position, since I haven't seen many people ranking Campbell in the top 10 for the draft--weren't able to do. But this idea that the CHL is going to give him the leg up he needs to be in the NHL after a year or two is patently ridiculous.
2008
Chet Pickard-18th overall-Hasn't played in the NHL yet.
Thomas McCollum-30th overall-Yeah right.
2007
No goalies in the first round of the draft. This draft did include Josh Unice who bailed on Bowling Green at the last second in order to take "the faster route to the pros". Now it looks like he'll be done with competitive hockey by the age of 21 next year.
2006
Jonathan Bernier-11th overall-He got 4 games in the NHL in his second season after the draft. Whenver he makes the NHL full-time, if he does, he'll still be considered a rookie.
Leland Irving-26th overall-Hasn't played in the NHL yet.
2005
Carey Price-5th overall-He became an NHL regular in his third year after being drafted. That would be the equivalent of a college goalie leaving after his sophomore season.
2004
Devan Dubnyk-14th overall-Has yet to play in the NHL.
Marek Schwarz-17th overall-Czech born, but moved to the WHL after being drafted. He got 2 NHL games in the second year after being drafted, but has never played more than two games in a season.
2003
Marc-Andre Fleury-1st overall-He played 22 games the year after he was drafted, but didn't play a full season until the third season after he was drafted.
2002
Cam Ward-25th overall-It wasn't until his fourth season after being drafted that he broke into the NHL.
2001
Pascal Leclaire-8th overall-He got 2 NHL games in his third season after being drafted. He didn't get significant playing time until 2005-2006.
Dan Blackburn-10th overall-Actually made the NHL and played significantly the year after he was drafted.
Jason Bacashihua-26th overall-It wasn't unitl his 5th season after being drafted that he saw the NHL.
Adam Munro-29th overall-Saw a handful of games in his third year after juniors.
2000
Brent Krahn-9th overall-He got his first and only NHL start last year.
1999
Brian Finley-6th overall-4 total NHL games
Maxime Ouellet-22nd overall-Just a handful of NHL games
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Very well put once again… lets here all those canadiens talk once again about the CHL. At least it is a good laugh!
by ironflexgym on Nov 24, 2009 8:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I do not understand why posts like the above are made, and then everyone is shocked that the CHL fans try to defend their game. Really, that is a very one sided look at it. Its well written, but there are other goaltenders who have made it threw the CHL.
Either way, good work, but do not act shocked when CHL fans defend their game, the post above is pretty inflammatory.
by jacksoul on Nov 24, 2009 8:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Nobody is saying the CHL doesn’t produce some excellent goaltenders. It’s a simple numbers things that with that much talent, some are going to get through. But very few, if any, are NHL regulars by the age of 20, which is what Campbell claims the CHL will allow him to do, despite a lack of track record backing up that claim.
I didn’t bother looking at other rounds of the draft, since I figured it was a huge longshot, but if there were other CHL goalies that made it to the NHL within the timeframe Campbell mentioned, I’d be interested to hear about them.
by WCHBlog on Nov 24, 2009 9:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Im not arguing with you, more so your use of words. People will come on here and wonder why CHL fans will defend their league, but fail to acknowledge the way that you tore down there league. That was my only real point.
Continue to do what you want, you made some good points, but posters, do not act shocked when people come to defend their league.
by jacksoul on Nov 24, 2009 11:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Has it ever occured to anyone that Campbel did not want to split time with Hogan next year? His options were to report to Michigan and play perhaps 20, maybe 25 games for the year or go the OHL route and play twice as many.
Considering these options, what would you have done????
He now will play in the OHL for 2 years and be in the AHL by the time he is 20….perhaps even sooner, as opposed of going the NCAA route and then having to bail on his team after his sophmore year just to keep in the same track as his CHL counterparts.
He made the right choice.
by KTF on Nov 24, 2009 5:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
right choice
Did he make the right choice?
I don’t know. I can understand Chris’ argument. And I’ll parallel it by saying this:
If Jack said “I think the OHL gives me a better shot at becoming an NHL goaltender than Michigan” I would just shrug my shoulders and say C’est la vie. Jack isn’t the first to bolt to the CHL after commiting to a college and definitely won’t be the last.
However, he stated a timeline… a specific age where he thinks he’ll be an NHL netminder.
That’s ridiculous to be able to predict something like that.
And KTF – Uh… his goal isn’t to be an AHL netminder at 20 years of age.
In any case, he chose to jump now instead of later, which was the silver lining of it all.
by blah blah blah on Nov 24, 2009 7:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Lets remember, he is a kid, he has high goals, why is everyone upset at a 17 year old who has lofty goals. I have told many kids in my time in hockey to aim for the stars and at worst land on the mood. Good for the kid for challenging himself.
by jacksoul on Nov 24, 2009 8:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
“And KTF – Uh… his goal isn’t to be an AHL netminder at 20 years of age.”
That may not be his goal but I am sure he realizes that he will be better served by playing in the AHL as a 20 year old than in the NCAA. That was my point.
by KTF on Nov 25, 2009 3:10 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Lots of points to consider here...
1. Why is it that every time a kid bolts for the CHL he is ripped in this blog, and it is considered a “bad” decision? Do i need to bring up the education package again?
2. This kid is good, and you’ve said it yourself many times on this blog. Campbell will play in the NHL…period.
3. When is the last time that Michigan has developed an NHL goaltender? Turco?
4. I think that it is funny to look at two very different approaches that NCAA and the CHL have. The NCAA will show you all the stats on how few players make it to the NHL, and how it is nearly impossible. The CHL will then show you how many guys from their league have made it to the NHL. Bottom line is….they are both right!
5. Hey Ciskie, is this a trend yet?!
6.At the rate things are going, you will see the percentage of the NHL draft soar to 70% in 4 years.
by wickedsmart on Nov 29, 2009 6:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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